Not all summers are created equal especially at the box office. One of my favorite summers of all time was the summer of 1996 when Independence Day came out and I spent the rest of my summer as a ten year old fighting aliens on my cousins farm in Georgia. Looking back, I don't really remember much else from that summer. The first "Nutty Professor" movie came out as did "Twister" and "The Rock" but overall, according to Hollywood analysts that too was a bad summer. That said, the thing that separates the then and now is that it is very doubtful another "Independence Day" will come out of this lot of films being released in 2010. I'm talking, a movie that will go on and gross all the way till fall and keep making money for many years after it.
I've been pretty wrong on most of my predictions so far, I think as far as this summer goes, everyone has. More are failing than I thought was possible. What's up with that? Economic problems in Europe probably arn't helping and like the studios big fight with the summer olympics in 1996 to get audiences, the world cup might be affecting audiences world wide--leaving international numbers pretty slim. Maybe that was in the cards all along, they've learned that they can't compete with a once every four year TV event, so they'll just release filler because they have to and make what they make. No sense trying to fight it.
That's probably what's going on. Notice throughout the rest of June and into early July there aren't many huge films coming. And July 4 weekend is like an empty coffin with the exception of "Last Airbender." That's one of the best weekends of the summer to release anything so the lack of something on that weekend signals to me, something is up. "Knight and Day," "Salt," "Inception" and "Predator" are about the only things left worth mentioning--on and the Mark Wahlburg/Will Ferrell thing in August. So yeah, it's a summer slump, but on the bright side, maybe next summer we won't have to deal with another summer barrage of nothing but franchises and bad adaptations, again, that's Iron Man 2, Shrek 4, Toy Story 3, Predator, Robin Hood, and so so much more.